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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.