A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
