Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
